NQ is bullish on the HTF but needs a retracement to fuel further upside. SMTs on D1 and H4 point to a short-term bearish move toward the discount of the last range.
Monthly
Monthly: price is consolidating between the range high and the range low.
From the ATH, NQ pulled back, tapped the monthly volume imbalance and FVG, and swept below the range low before closing back inside. It never reached the discount of the HTF range (March low to ATH).
No monthly bias: NQ could run the ATH first, take the sellside liquidity first, or keep consolidating.
Weekly
NQ swept the previous weekly low and (just) tapped the discount of the range.
Potential SMT with YM: NQ held a higher low, YM made a lower low.
CISD not confirmed yet: the weekly hasn't closed.
Bullish bias, targeting the monthly buyside liquidity
Daily
Daily SMT confirmed by the daily CISD (weekly CISD still pending).
NQ tapped the +D1 FVG in the discount of the first range (July low to August high), then displaced higher, leaving 3 daily FVGs.
Wednesday swept Tuesday's high and closed back below it: a short-term retracement is likely.
HTF bullish. Possible scenario: a pullback into the +D1 FVG (~30,000–30,650), in the discount of the new range, before a move to the buyside liquidity (~31,350).
H4
H4 confirms the short-term bearish bias: bearish SMT at the highs, then a bearish CISD below ~30,810, leaving two -H4 FVGs.
Target: the discount of the last range, from the last low before the HTF BOS (~29,650) to the high (~31,100). First +H4 FVG right at the equilibrium.
Still bullish on the HTF: this pullback would land inside the +D1 FVG, in line with the daily scenario.
M15
The confirmed SMT sets the protected high, the top of the new range. If the short-term bearish bias is right, NQ should not trade above it.
NQ left a -M15 FVG in the premium of this range, overlapping the CISD: a possible short entry.
Plan: short in the FVG, stop above the protected high, first target the M15 low, then the first +H4 FVG.
M1
NQ taps the -M15 FVG, creating a potential HTF SMT
LTF SMT confirmed by the CISD: the high is now protected
Entry: half at the CISD, limit order for the other half on the -M1 FVG in premium of the range
Stop above the protected high: if the LTF SMT is valid, NQ shouldn't trade above it
Result
NQ didn't tap the -M1 FVG, so only half of the position got filled
Secured multiple TPs for a total of 3R
NQ eventually tapped the +H4 FVG
What I take from it
Splitting the entry paid off. The limit on the -M1 FVG never filled, but entering half at the CISD still got me in the trade.