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NQShortLondonM125 September 2026
−1.0 R

NQ short against orderflow

The thesis

This is an example of a losing trade. I list the mistakes I made so you don't repeat them.

Monthly

  • The monthly is consolidating
  • NQ tapped both sides of the monthly range but is now clearly targeting the range high again
  • Bias: bullish

Weekly

  • Bullish orderflow on the weekly as well
  • NQ tapped the discount of the previous range, taking the range low liquidity
  • ... and formed a HTF SMT confirmed by the CISD
  • Bias: bullish, targeting the range high

Daily

  • Bullish orderflow again
  • HTF bullish SMT confirmed by the CISD
  • NQ didn't go into discount but is showing strength, with a potential swing low forming on the +D1 FVG (needs the daily close to be confirmed). When an asset is close to its final target, it may not retrace as deep as at the beginning of the move.
  • Bias: bullish, with a small reservation as it didn't go into daily discount

H4

This is where it started to go wrong. First, what I saw that made me take a (losing) short; then, what I missed.

What I saw:

  • Confirmed HTF bearish SMT
  • NQ seemed to form a swing high right inside a -H4 FVG, in premium of the last range and in OTE (see fibs)
  • NQ had not yet reached premium of the daily range (see previous chart)
  • Bias: still bullish on the HTF, but a retracement was possible

What I missed:

  • Orderflow: Monthly, Weekly and Daily were all bullish. H4 was clearly bullish too, with 5 consecutive bullish candles. That alone should have kept me away from a short.
  • An SMT against orderflow is weaker than an SMT aligned with it.
  • H4 had already tapped discount of the last range (internal liquidity). The next target was external liquidity: the range high, not a short.

M15

What I saw:

  • Price tapped OTE of the last range, inside a -M15 FVG, with a confirmed SMT
  • An H4 swing high seemed to be forming within the -H4 FVG
  • I thought a retracement was possible, especially since the daily discount hadn't been tapped yet

What I missed:

  • Bullish orderflow on all HTFs (M, W and D)
  • Bullish orderflow on H4, and the last candle hadn't closed yet, so the H4 swing high wasn't confirmed
  • Bullish orderflow on M15
  • Every timeframe was bullish: the short was against orderflow from top to bottom

M1

What I saw:

  • LTF SMT confirmed by a CISD
  • Entry at the CISD, targeting the equal lows

What I missed:

  • Again, every timeframe was bullish: there was no reason to short
  • Weak price action: M1 was consolidating and turned down without any liquidity grab, leaving equal highs behind, right above my stop
  • No displacement, so no conviction: the CISD was weak

Result

  • The short was stopped out
  • There was a long opportunity instead, consistent with the bullish orderflow on every timeframe: liquidity grab in discount of the last M1 range, LTF SMT and CISD
  • The equal highs left above were the obvious target, and they got taken

What I take from it

  • Stay in line with orderflow and avoid trading against it
  • Don't let FOMO cloud your judgment. The chart gives you all the clues: learn to read them correctly, without emotion
  • If you think a trend is shifting, wait for proper confirmation

The full method behind this trade is in the book: cross currency analysis and SMT divergences, in 158 pages.