This is an example of a losing trade. I list the mistakes I made so you don't repeat them.
Monthly
The monthly is consolidating
NQ tapped both sides of the monthly range but is now clearly targeting the range high again
Bias: bullish
Weekly
Bullish orderflow on the weekly as well
NQ tapped the discount of the previous range, taking the range low liquidity
... and formed a HTF SMT confirmed by the CISD
Bias: bullish, targeting the range high
Daily
Bullish orderflow again
HTF bullish SMT confirmed by the CISD
NQ didn't go into discount but is showing strength, with a potential swing low forming on the +D1 FVG (needs the daily close to be confirmed). When an asset is close to its final target, it may not retrace as deep as at the beginning of the move.
Bias: bullish, with a small reservation as it didn't go into daily discount
H4
This is where it started to go wrong. First, what I saw that made me take a (losing) short; then, what I missed.
What I saw:
Confirmed HTF bearish SMT
NQ seemed to form a swing high right inside a -H4 FVG, in premium of the last range and in OTE (see fibs)
NQ had not yet reached premium of the daily range (see previous chart)
Bias: still bullish on the HTF, but a retracement was possible
What I missed:
Orderflow: Monthly, Weekly and Daily were all bullish. H4 was clearly bullish too, with 5 consecutive bullish candles. That alone should have kept me away from a short.
An SMT against orderflow is weaker than an SMT aligned with it.
H4 had already tapped discount of the last range (internal liquidity). The next target was external liquidity: the range high, not a short.
M15
What I saw:
Price tapped OTE of the last range, inside a -M15 FVG, with a confirmed SMT
An H4 swing high seemed to be forming within the -H4 FVG
I thought a retracement was possible, especially since the daily discount hadn't been tapped yet
What I missed:
Bullish orderflow on all HTFs (M, W and D)
Bullish orderflow on H4, and the last candle hadn't closed yet, so the H4 swing high wasn't confirmed
Bullish orderflow on M15
Every timeframe was bullish: the short was against orderflow from top to bottom
M1
What I saw:
LTF SMT confirmed by a CISD
Entry at the CISD, targeting the equal lows
What I missed:
Again, every timeframe was bullish: there was no reason to short
Weak price action: M1 was consolidating and turned down without any liquidity grab, leaving equal highs behind, right above my stop
No displacement, so no conviction: the CISD was weak
Result
The short was stopped out
There was a long opportunity instead, consistent with the bullish orderflow on every timeframe: liquidity grab in discount of the last M1 range, LTF SMT and CISD
The equal highs left above were the obvious target, and they got taken
What I take from it
Stay in line with orderflow and avoid trading against it
Don't let FOMO cloud your judgment. The chart gives you all the clues: learn to read them correctly, without emotion
If you think a trend is shifting, wait for proper confirmation